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Workshop on Influenza Risk Assessment and Risk Modeling:
Pandemic Influenza Threats and Beyond
November 7-9, 2012, Rome, Italy 

I. Summary 
This workshop builds upon the three previous community-based data synthesis, analysis and modeling of Highly 
Pathogenic Avian Influenza workshops, which were coordinated by NIH, FAO and University of Oklahoma since 2009. 
The focus of the workshop in November 2012 will bring together the experience and expertise arising from four 
different projects or initiatives, namely NIH, EPT+, CDC and FLURISK and it results from the interest shared by 
partners to better assess and model the potential risk of evolution and spread of pandemic influenza.   


II. Objectives 
1)  Provide an opportunity for risk assessment and modeling professionals and influenza experts to 
share their experiences, and results to date, in risk assessment and modeling approaches; 
2)  Identify challenges or limitations in the risk assessment and modeling approaches; and 
3)  Explore potential collaborations among risk assessment and modeling groups that will maximize 
limited resources and improve the accuracy of pandemic influenza risk modeling in the future.  
 
III. Scope 
To achieve these objectives the workshop will include plenary presentations and discussion sessions focused on 
three topics: 
1)  Reviewing current risk assessment and modeling approaches for influenza; 
2)  Identifying potential gaps in information needed to improve risk assessment and modeling; and 
3)  Assessing potential for combining different approaches or results of influenza risk assessments or 
models to improve the outputs derived from each independent approach. 
 
IV. Scientific Organizing Committee 
Marco De Nardi  (FLURISK and IZSVE), Marius Gilbert (Brussels Free University and EPT+), Scott Newman (FAO and 
EPT+), Dirk Pfeiffer (RVC ), Timothy Robinson (FAO and EPT+), Susan Trock (US CDC) and Xiangming Xiao (University 
of Oklahoma and NIH).


V. Venue  
Malaysia Room (B 227), FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy  

VI. Agenda

Final Agenda

VII. Presentations 

01)

Knowledge-based pandemic influenza risk mapping

Timothy Robinson

02)

Background to the last 4 NIH Workshops

Xiangming Xiao

03)

EPT+: objectives and core activities

Scott Newman

04)

CDC: pandemic Influenza – risk assessment for the human population

Ruben Donis

05)

FLURISK: a project description

Marco de Nardi

06)

USAID PREDICT program: an overview

Parviez Hosseini

07)

Capital, value chains, politics and protein: 
pandemic flu risk in a socio-economic perspective

Tony Barnett

08)

Methodological and structural changes in the global poultry sector: 
drivers and consequences in terms of pandemic influenza risk

Ellen Silbergeld

09)

The contribution of genetic evolutionary analysis to epidemiological investigations on AI

Giovanni Cattoli

10)

Following virus recombination and evolution: 
coping with the avalanche of sequencing data

Ioannis Xenarios

11)

Suitability of viral molecular markers for pandemic influenza risk assessment: 
is there a genetic predisposition for a species jump?

Sophie von Dobschuetz &

Olga Muñoz

12)

EMPRES-i – Overview and applications for surveillance and molecular epidemiology

Caryl Lockhart &

Filip Claes

13)

Agro-ecology – livestock production systems

Timothy Robinson

14)

Relating migratory tracks of wild birds with transmission of avian influenza

John Takekawa

15)

Mapping and monitoring of paddy rice croplands and wetlands

Xiangming Xiao

16)

Spatial epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in poultry: what have we learned?

Marius Gilbert

17)

Modelling high risk areas of H5N1 transmission between domestic and wild birds in China

Diann Prosser

18)

Metapopulation models of farm structure and zoonotic risk

Parviez Hosseini

19)

Spatio-temporal dynamic of H5N1 in poultry, the case of Thailand during the 2004 epidemic

Thomas van Boeckel

20)

Expanding modelling frameworks to integrate human behavioural factors

Guillaume Fournie

21)

A risk assessment framework for zoonotic influenza: 
modelling the species jump

 

Andy Hill

22)

CDC (IRAT): Risk assessment tool for emerging influenza viruses

Susan Trock


VIII. Participants

List

Photo

IX. Summary

Report
 
X. Contact Person for Inquiries (please send any inquiries to all 3 people listed below) 
 
Lindsey McCrickard (FAO)  
lindsey.mccrickard@fao.org 
Priya Markanday  (FAO)
priya.markanday@fao.org 
Melissa Scott (U. of Oklahoma)    
msbrown@ou.edu 



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101 David L. Boren Blvd, Norman, OK 73019, USA. Phone: (405) 325-8941
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